Tesla Enters the Mass Market—How Far Can Electric Vehicles Go in the Future?

Another big news story has emerged in the electric vehicle sector: Tesla has launched a new, more affordable car with an increased range.

Starting at $35,000, this electric vehicle can travel 344 kilometers on a single charge. Such an electric car is more affordable and accessible to the average consumer.

Electric vehicles, which hold great promise for the future, have yet to become commonplace among ordinary households. The biggest constraints are, on the one hand, their sky-high prices and, on the other, their inadequate battery range.

Currently, everyone is hoping that the “ultimate battery” will solve the problem of insufficient range in electric vehicles, thereby driving down their prices significantly. However, how much longer will it be before this legendary “ultimate battery” finally becomes available? And just how far can electric vehicles actually go in the future?

Slow charging, limited range—the curse that hinders the development of electric vehicles.

A slow charge for an electric vehicle takes six to eight hours, and even then, you may not necessarily be able to find a suitable power source. A fast charge, on the other hand, takes just an hour and a half—but it can only fully charge the battery up to 80%.

Slow charging and limited driving range have almost become a curse that hinders the development of electric vehicles.

“I have ‘battery anxiety,’” Wang, who lives in Shijingshan, Beijing, joked. “As soon as I set out with my electric car, I’m already calculating whether I’ll make it back home—and whether there’s a charging station nearby.”

With his newly purchased electric vehicle, after fast-charging at a charging station for an hour and a half, the range can reach 160 kilometers—though there’s still a gap compared to conventional gasoline cars. Even with fast charging, sometimes you have to wait in line for a long time at the charging station.

Having bought an electric vehicle, how can I overcome battery anxiety?

The first thing people think of is increasing the number of charging facilities. Last October, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development jointly issued the “Guidelines for the Development of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure (2015–2020),” clearly stating that more than 12,000 centralized charging and battery-swapping stations and over 4.8 million distributed charging piles would be added to meet the nationwide charging demand of 5 million electric vehicles.

Simply increasing the number of charging facilities won't solve the problem of long charging times for electric vehicles. Ultimately, improving the performance of electric vehicles hinges on a revolution in battery technology. Only when battery range is significantly enhanced will electric vehicles be able to demonstrate advantages that gasoline-powered cars simply cannot match.

“For electric vehicles to achieve long driving ranges, batteries need to have high energy density; and for fast charging, they need to have high power density,” said Li Hong, chief scientist of the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ “Long-Range Power Lithium Battery” project. Increasing battery energy density is of great significance for electric vehicles.

Taking the lithium batteries used in electric vehicles by a domestic Chinese company as an example, he said: “Currently, the energy density of these lithium batteries is about 180 watt-hours per kilogram, with a range of roughly 200 kilometers. In the coming years, the industry aims to increase this to between 300 and 400 watt-hours per kilogram. With corresponding improvements, the range could reach 470 and 628 kilometers—comparable to that of gasoline-powered vehicles.”

Chen Xiaojiang, deputy director of the Passenger Vehicle Design Institute at Beiqi Foton, predicts that around 2018, major global electric vehicle manufacturers will successively launch electric vehicles with a range of 400 to 500 kilometers. By then, battery performance indicators will improve significantly, and the prices of electric vehicles will drop substantially.

Last year, German automaker Audi also announced plans to begin mass production of its first all-electric vehicle in 2018, with a range of up to 500 kilometers.

2018 might be worth looking forward to.

Long range, fast charging—Which battery technology will stand out?

According to experts, the future development of battery technology will roughly go through three stages: first, third-generation lithium-ion batteries; then solid-state lithium batteries; and ultimately, solid-state lithium-air batteries may become the ultimate goal.

Among various types of power batteries, lithium-ion batteries have always been the leading player. Depending on the materials used, they can be categorized into several types, including lithium iron phosphate, ternary lithium, lithium manganese oxide, and lithium nickel oxide. Continuous improvements to these materials can steadily enhance battery performance. Chen Xiaojiang said that compared to lithium iron phosphate batteries, ternary lithium batteries offer greater potential for performance enhancement.

Currently, lithium-air batteries are attracting considerable attention, and countries around the world are racing to conduct research on them. Often referred to as the “ultimate battery,” the lithium-air battery features a lithium metal anode and a conductive carbon material cathode. During discharge, lithium ions released from the anode react with oxygen from the air. Theoretically, this type of battery boasts the highest energy density of all lithium-based batteries.

At the end of October last year, scientists including Liu Tao from the University of Cambridge in the UK reported in the journal Science that they had developed a lithium-air battery prototype with an energy density of approximately 3,000 watt-hours per kilogram—more than ten times that of today’s high-performance lithium-ion batteries. This breakthrough was also named among the “Top Ten Global Scientific and Technological Advances of 2015” as selected by academicians from both the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Engineering.

Chen Xiaojiang said that once lithium-air battery technology matures, it could fundamentally change people's understanding of charging. When a battery’s charge runs low, people would simply need to replace the electrode material—no longer requiring a recharge, and certainly no longer needing to wait for long periods of time.

Just how far away is this technology from becoming a reality? Lu Jun, a scientist at the U.S. Argonne National Laboratory, says, “Basic research on lithium-air batteries is progressing rapidly, but lithium-air batteries haven’t yet reached the commercialization stage. I estimate that it will take another five to ten years before they become commercially viable.”

Some companies are taking a different approach in the field of power batteries. The new MIRAI vehicle developed by Toyota Motor Corporation of Japan has demonstrated impressive performance in testing—running long distances and charging quickly. It’s equipped with a new type of fuel cell. This fuel cell uses hydrogen as its fuel; it takes only three minutes to fill up a tank of hydrogen, and the vehicle can travel up to 650 kilometers on a single charge. However, due to the challenges of hydrogen production and the high costs associated with building hydrogen refueling stations, this technology has yet to become widely adopted.

“Even if lithium-air batteries become commercially viable in the future, that doesn’t mean other battery technologies will lose their market,” Liu Tao told reporters. “We’ll just have to wait and see which battery technology will ultimately stand out first in the competition.”

Great opportunities and strong guidance—China’s battery research has the potential to take a leading position.

New-energy vehicles represent a landmark industry in the industrial sector of the new economy. Many countries and companies are eager to seize the commanding heights of this industry. Germany plans to completely ban the production of gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2050. Toyota has also announced that it will stop launching gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2025.

Many Chinese automakers also plan to increase the share of new-energy vehicles to 80% by 2025. “There are far more opportunities in making electric vehicles than in making traditional internal-combustion-engine cars,” said Liu Li, head of the System Development Department at Foton Motor’s New Energy Technology Center.

The attention that various countries are paying to electric vehicles—especially power batteries—will determine consumers’ direct experience and how each country secures a leading position in this industry. In China, issues such as “battery anxiety” and the reluctance to take long-distance trips in electric vehicles have received unprecedented attention from the government, the scientific community, and businesses.

The “Made in China 2025” plan, formulated by the Chinese government, contains numerous provisions related to batteries, setting specific target requirements for areas such as power battery systems for electric vehicles and battery technologies based on entirely new material systems. The state also provides guidance and support for the new-energy vehicle industry, greatly accelerating the popularization of new-energy vehicles and the R&D of batteries.

At the State Council Executive Meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang on February 24 this year, further measures to support the new-energy vehicle industry were also adopted. Among the five measures proposed at the meeting, the first one is to accelerate achieving a revolutionary breakthrough in power battery technology: “Promote the establishment of collaborative innovation platforms for power batteries—bringing together large, medium, and small enterprises, universities, and research institutes—to foster open and shared collaboration. Focus efforts on developing common and foundational technologies in key materials and battery systems.”

In this global race to revolutionize batteries, Chinese researchers are determined to push the boundaries and reach the world’s cutting edge. “We’re eager to prove ourselves—to create high-performance batteries using Chinese materials and Chinese equipment,” said Li Hong. To this end, the Chinese Academy of Sciences has launched a Strategic Leading Project aimed at developing a breakthrough: replacing the liquid electrolyte in lithium-air batteries with a solid one, thereby ushering in an “ultimate battery” that is both more efficient and safer.

In the upcoming new-energy revolution, batteries will serve as a crucial driving force. “China is in a very advantageous position in this regard and could potentially take the lead in the future,” said Li Hong.

According to Li Hong, China is demonstrating a comprehensive and all-around approach—from basic research to the entire industrial chain: Among the papers in the lithium-battery field indexed by the internationally recognized SCI database, Chinese papers account for 47% of the global total, placing China firmly in first place with an overwhelming lead. China boasts a complete industrial chain, meaning that virtually no materials used in the lithium-battery industry rely on imports. Moreover, several Chinese companies have already mastered world-leading technologies for high-energy-density lithium-ion batteries and are now producing batteries for both domestic and international manufacturers.

In the battery sector, companies’ enthusiasm is also crucial. “Our battery R&D team has more than 1,000 members, and we’re working on nearly all types of battery technologies,” said Wang Chuanfu, President of BYD Co., Ltd.

In February of this year, the Antelope Valley Transportation Authority in the Greater Los Angeles area of the United States announced that BYD would supply 85 all-electric buses, helping the Antelope Valley become the first all-electric bus system in the entire U.S. For Wang Chuanfu, this signifies that the U.S. bus industry has now recognized BYD’s battery technology and the technology behind China’s electric buses.

The rapid development of the market, supportive policies, breakthroughs in basic research, and increased corporate investment have ushered in a springtime for new-energy vehicles. And the growth of new-energy vehicles, in turn, has brought about a spring for power batteries. We look forward to the hard work of spring bearing abundant fruit in the height of summer—and we eagerly anticipate that the ultimate battery will finally solve the problem of short driving ranges in electric vehicles.