This year, the auto market caught off guard into the low growth, so that last year's market this year, manufacturers have lowered the market target this year. In the new market situation, the car manufacturers have also reached a consensus, low growth is not short, it will exist in the long term, the formation of "new normal", which will directly make the car manufacturers more rational planning "thirteen Fives". In the steam center data resource center experts predict the "thirteen five" sales data show that by 2020 the overall market size of 28.77 million, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 30 million. This target data is recognized by the industry. But at the same time, the rapid development of new energy vehicles, all kinds of policy support efforts in the "three five" period should be extended, 5 million target may not be a dream.

2020 market size may be slightly lower than 30 million

"China's auto market will remain low in the high base, the average annual growth rate of the domestic auto market in 2015. During the period of 2016 and even the whole of the" 13th Five-Year Plan "period, The growth rate of about 4%. "October 15, China Automotive Technology Research Center in Xinjiang Karamay held at 2015 information exchange and business development seminar, the steam center data center experts said. According to the data provided by China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2014, China's total automobile production and sales were 23.72 million and 23.49 million, if calculated at 4% growth rate, then by 2020, China's automobile production and sales will achieve 30.01 million and 29.72 million Vehicle, with the previous car manufacturers overall forecast of 30 million basically flat. However, the data in the Center's data center is expected to be slightly lower: by 2020, the overall market size will be 28.77 million. Since China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, China's auto market has experienced a decade of high-speed growth, known as gold for 10 years. 10 years, China's auto production and sales from more than two million breakthrough 18 million, in one fell swoop to become the world's largest automobile producer and the largest car market. This 10 years coincides with China's "15" and "Eleventh Five-Year" period (2001 to 2010). Since 2011, China entered the "second five", the Chinese auto market has also entered the new low-speed development of the normal, the growth rate slowed down significantly in poor performance in 2015. The reason, mainly to endogenous growth momentum slowed down, consumer demand weakened. Stock market turmoil, car demand delay. From the market level, the vehicle plant to enter the release capacity of new production capacity, market competition is more intense. Car manufacturers cut prices, lower production to become the new normal. Dealer inventory high profitability weakened, or even a large area of ​​losses. From the consumer level, the economic downturn led to lack of consumer information, wait and see psychological enhancement. In addition, the drop, fast and so the way to promote the use of car, making some consumers give up the car, try to share the car. And these factors will remain in the long-term, which also makes the auto market out of the "new normal" is unlikely.

5 million new energy vehicles are not a dream

How do you find growth points under heavy pressure? To achieve "thirteen five" goal? Dongfeng Motor (9.52, -0.15, -1.55%) company's strategic planning minister Liao Zhengbo that new energy is a big breakthrough. In the previous session of the State Council executive meeting to discuss through the "energy saving and new energy automotive industry development plan (2012-2020)", in 2020 more than 5 million. Although the 5 million data encountered a great challenge, which Kearney publicly stated that China is difficult to achieve by 2020, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles reached 5 million of the grand goal, but in the series of incentives to promote, The new energy automotive market is booming. According to the steam association statistics, from January to September the new energy car production 144284, sales 136733, respectively, year on year growth of 2.0 times and 2.3 times. Of which pure electric vehicle production and sales were completed 93032 and 87531, respectively, year on year growth of 2.0 times and 2.7 times; plug-in hybrid car production and sales were completed 51252 and 49,202, an increase of 1.9 times and 1.8 times. And the policy is still continuing, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries jointly issued "on 2016-2020 new energy vehicles to promote the application of financial support policy notice", the next five years, China will continue to implement subsidies for new energy vehicles policy. This means that during the "thirteen five" period, China will continue to implement a positive new energy vehicle promotion policy, and the implementation of GSP, in the country to demonstrate the promotion. Vigorously develop new energy vehicles, of course, become the car "three five" plan the main event. In addition, on January 5 this year, the Ministry of Industry issued a revised "fuel consumption limit for passenger cars" and "evaluation methods and indicators for fuel consumption of passenger cars". It is understood that the two national mandatory standards will be implemented on January 1, 2016, each year will set fuel consumption standards, until the 2020 passenger car average fuel consumption down to 5.0 liters / 100 km. In this case, if only the traditional power technology is difficult to achieve, the development of new energy vehicles, has become a business must face the subject. Liao Zhengbo introduction, "thirteen five" period, Dongfeng Group will master some of the key technologies of new energy vehicles, the core resources in the overall market into the development of the background, Dongfeng new energy vehicles strive to lead the industry in sales. Guangzhou Automobile Group (20.01, -0.06, -0.30%) hope that through the new energy vehicles to build sustainable competitiveness. Changan Automobile (15.33, -0.41, -2.60%) of the "thirteen" new energy vehicle strategy is more comprehensive and clear. Yuan Ming Xue said that Changan will be intelligent as a breakthrough, to create a new energy vehicle classic products, to achieve its "518" new energy product performance goals. The SAIC Group (17.77, 0.00, 0.00%) is also the layout of the new energy automotive industry chain, in order to prepare for the "thirteen".

"Thirteen five" auto industry is facing "new technology war"

"SAIC's 'thirteen five' strategy focuses on creating innovative enterprises, and in the complex and changeable environment to enhance the competitive advantage." Cheng said. The steam industry group executive vice president Feng Xingya also said: "The future of the automobile industry manufacturing methods, business models, etc. will be a major change: First, the product level will be personalized, electric, intelligent change; Secondly, at the manufacturing level , Digital, modular manufacturing will promote the transformation of automobile production to large-scale customization of these car prices under a five-year development will have a profound impact. "How will the future development of the car, in addition to the product itself changes, as well as the operation Mode change. In the development of intelligent vehicle, unmanned has reached a consensus, and with the unmanned implementation, the car's business model may also change, such as with the emergence of shared cars, car sharing will be gradually achieved. Dongfeng will be in the "three five" period, including cloud computing, industrial intelligence system, including the construction of the basic network platform. "May be 'thirteen Five' period we can not be done completely, but the basic framework program will be built up and started in some areas." Liao Zhengbo said, "Changan Automobile during the 'thirteenth Five' period, including the use of the Internet, Calculation and other models of derivative industries, as well as the traditional car rental business, etc. "Yuan Mingxue also said. The Cheng Lei Lei said that the future of the automotive industry need to intervene in the development of innovative financial industry, car prices to establish a new financial advantage, and in the post-market innovation business layout, to create a user experience as the center of customer service. For the automotive enterprises, the overseas market is still a large room for expansion. In Changan's "thirteen five" plan, in response to the national "area along the way" strategy to achieve both domestic and international market transformation into Changan's new overseas strategy. Guangzhou Internationalization is not only limited to the international brand building, but also includes sound product, investment, financing system in three areas, through scientific planning, co-ordinate resources, and strive to achieve overseas sales scale, global integration of resources and international capital operation. Feng Xingya told reporters: "'thirteen five' period, we will reach 300,000 overseas sales, overseas exports into the industry before the three." And including SAIC, Chery, Geely, including independent brand enterprises, not only developed "Thirteen five" overseas market planning, and have plans in the "thirteen" to break through the treasure of North America, Western Europe and other mainstream developed countries market.